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NUCOR CORP (NUE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered net sales of $8.52B, diluted EPS of $2.63, and EBITDA of ~$1.27B, with volumes resilient and segment earnings mixed; results exceeded prior EPS and revenue consensus and came in above EBITDA consensus* .
  • EPS and revenue beat S&P Global consensus (EPS $2.17*, Revenue $8.15B*, EBITDA $1.16B*), driven by stronger-than-expected shipments in sheet, bar and structural, lower pre-operating/start-up costs, and favorable corporate adjustments; management said results topped guidance by ~$0.50 EPS .
  • Outlook: Q4 earnings expected lower sequentially due to fewer shipping days, lower sheet prices, and planned DRI outages; steel products pricing stable but volumes seasonally softer .
  • Capital allocation: Q3 buybacks ~$100M (~0.7M shares), dividend $0.55 (210th consecutive); liquidity $2.75B in cash and short-term investments; Moody’s upgraded long-term rating to A3 in September .
  • Strategic execution: ramping two bar mill projects (Kingman melt shop and Lexington micromill), advancing coating lines, and commencing pole production in Alabama Towers & Structures; strong long-products demand and multi-quarter backlogs in products; data center exposure expanding via Nucor Data Systems .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Stronger-than-expected shipments and lower start-up costs led to an EPS beat versus guidance; “These results exceeded our third quarter guidance, driven by stronger than expected shipments … and favorable corporate adjustments” (Leon Topalian) .
    • Longs momentum: rebar shipments hit quarterly records; bar group backlog +35% YoY; structural backlog strength; sheet backlog tons +13% YoY .
    • Balance sheet strength and ratings: liquidity ~$2.7B; Moody’s upgrade to A3 places NUE as only major NA steel producer with A-/A3 at all three agencies, per management .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Margin compression in sheet and plate pressured steel mills profitability; mills pre-tax earnings fell 6% QoQ to $793M; steel products earnings declined on mix, higher substrate pricing, and planned outage costs .
    • Raw materials earnings declined to $43M QoQ on lower realized pricing; Q4 will see planned outages at both DRI facilities further impacting segment .
    • Near-term outlook: Q4 earnings guided lower vs Q3 on fewer shipping days and lower realized sheet pricing; imports and new domestic supply absorption still monitored in flats .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$7.44 $8.46 $8.52
Diluted EPS ($)$1.05 $2.60 $2.63
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.869 $1.295 $1.265
Sales Tons to External Customers (MM tons)6.196 6.820 6.774
External Avg Sales Price per Ton ($)$1,201 $1,240 $1,258
Segment Pre-Tax Earnings ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Steel Mills$309 $843 $793
Steel Products$314 $392 $319
Raw Materials($66) $57 $43
Corporate/Eliminations($168) ($393) ($272)
Total EBT$389 $899 $883
KPIsQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Steel Mills Utilization (%)75% 85% 85%
Avg Scrap/Substitute Cost per Gross Ton ($)$378 $403 $391
Pre-Operating & Start-Up Costs ($MM)$168 $136 $103
Steel Mills External Sales Price per Ton ($)$967 $1,041 $1,038
Steel Products Avg Sales Price per Ton ($)$2,469 $2,331 $2,358
Q3 vs Estimates (S&P Global)Consensus Estimate*Actual
EPS ($)2.17*2.63
Revenue ($USD Billions)8.15*8.52
EBITDA ($USD Billions)1.16*1.27

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Diluted EPSQ3 2025$2.05–$2.15 per diluted share Actual $2.63 Beat/raised vs guidance
Consolidated EarningsQ4 2025N/ALower vs Q3 on fewer shipping days; lower sheet pricing; stable products pricing; planned DRI outages Lowered sequential outlook
Pre-Operating & Start-Up CostsQ4 2025–Q1 2026Q3 actual $103M $100–$110M per quarter expected for next couple quarters Maintained near Q3 run-rate
CAPEXFY 2025Prior not specified~$3.3B (revised) Raised/revised higher
DividendQ3 declared$0.55 (Q2 declared) $0.55 payable Nov 10, 2025 (210th consecutive) Maintained
Share RepurchasesAuthorization$606M remaining (as of Q2) $506M remaining (as of Oct 4) Lower remaining capacity after buybacks

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Data center buildout & Nucor Data SystemsResilient demand/backlogs; strategic investments continue (Q2) ; investment strategy positioning Nucor (Q1) Supply ~95% of steel needs for data centers; expanding server cabinets and containment; Dodge sees ~60M sq ft in 2025; double-digit growth next 5–6 years Strengthening; accelerating exposure
Trade policy & imports“Tax and trade policies that promote American manufacturing” (Q2) Imports down ~11% YTD; CORE case favorable; rebar case prelims expected; Section 232 support; sheet imports down ~35% YTD Supportive tailwind
Longs vs Flats demandQ2 mills earnings up on sheet/plate pricing; products volumes up Longs (bar/structural) strong; flats stable; sheet margin compression and lower Q4 pricing expected Mixed: Longs strong, Flats subdued
Growth projects & rampCapex elevated; multi-year investments (Q1/Q2) Commissioned Kingman melt shop & Lexington micromill; Alabama towers pole production; Crawfordsville galvanizing first coil; West Virginia sheet mill ~75% complete Execution progressing; near-term EBITDA positive targets
Pricing & backlogsQ2 pricing stable in products; mills pricing up at sheet/plate Sheet price realizations lag Q4 contracts; Q1 expected to reflect price hikes; products backlogs extend well into Q2’26; joist & deck backlogs +25% YoY Stable/improving in products; sheet recovery in Q1

Management Commentary

  • “We generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.63 of EPS. These results exceeded our third quarter guidance, driven by stronger than expected shipments … and favorable corporate adjustments.” — Leon Topalian, CEO .
  • “Pre-operating and startup costs for the third quarter were $103 million… Several newer operations progressed through startup more rapidly than anticipated, resulting in lower than expected pre-operating and startup cost.” — Steve Laxton, CFO .
  • “We began ramping production in the third quarter at our new melt shop in Kingman, Arizona, and our new rebar micromill in Lexington, North Carolina… both projects on track to be EBITDA positive by the first quarter of 2026.” — Leon Topalian .
  • “We expect Nucor's consolidated earnings to be lower than the third quarter… decline in realized pricing within our steel mills segment, primarily driven by sheet.” — Steve Laxton .

Q&A Highlights

  • Share gains and product exposure: Management highlighted market share gains and comprehensive solution set for hyperscalers and developers; capable of supplying ~95% of steel components in data centers; joist & deck backlogs ~25% higher YoY and extend well into 2026 .
  • Costs and margins: Conversion costs up QoQ due to slab costs, consumables (refractory), and labor tied to outages; cost YoY down 5% (mills) .
  • Sheet pricing realization: Contracted deliveries mean recent price hikes will be realized in Q1; low inventories at service centers and mills should speed realization .
  • Seattle rebar micromill decision: Not pursuing new micromill in Pacific Northwest; coverage adequate via Kingman, UT, and existing Seattle mill; capital to be deployed for higher EVA opportunities; Q3 buybacks $100M .
  • West Virginia sheet mill: ~75% complete; startup by end of next year; team assembled from across Nucor; designed with best-in-market capabilities .
  • Start-up cost outlook: $100–$110M per quarter expected next couple quarters .
  • Plate market and defense: Imports declining; strong bridge/energy demand; Brandenburg EBITDA positive; certifications achieved (e.g., X70 API), early-stage armor trials; potential to serve global defense demand .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $2.63 vs $2.17*; Revenue $8.52B vs $8.15B*; EBITDA ~$1.27B vs ~$1.16B* — all beats. Drivers: stronger shipments in mills (sheet, bar, structural), stable products volumes with mix headwinds, and lower start-up costs; favorable corporate eliminations .
  • Q4 2025 consensus: EPS $2.20*, Revenue $7.95B*, EBITDA ~$1.13B*; management guides lower sequential earnings on volumes and sheet pricing, with products pricing stable .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 was a quality beat vs consensus across EPS, revenue, and EBITDA, with operational execution and lower start-up costs the key positive drivers .
  • Near-term headwind: Q4 earnings guided lower on seasonal shipping days, sheet price realization lag, and DRI outages; traders should expect softer prints before potential Q1 sheet pricing uplift .
  • Long-products strength and growing downstream exposure (data centers, towers) provide diversification and backlog visibility well into 2026; supports medium-term margin stability .
  • Capex path: ~$3.3B FY25 with multiple projects nearing completion; management expects 2026 capex to decline >$0.5B, easing cash demands while growth assets contribute .
  • Balance sheet and ratings upgrades (A3 at Moody’s) reinforce flexibility for continued shareholder returns; buyback authorization remaining ~$506M and ongoing dividend support .
  • Watch catalysts: trade enforcement (CORE, rebar cases), sheet price momentum into Q1, Brandenburg plate certifications and defense orders, and ramp milestones at Lexington/Kingman/Crawfordsville/Berkeley/West Virginia .
  • Estimate revisions likely higher post-Q3 beat and backlog commentary, but tempered by Q4 guidance; positioning for Q1 sheet pricing realization could set up positive EPS delta vs current Q4-to-Q1 trajectory .